Tropical Depression TEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2005
 
T.D. TEN-E IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. LATEST DVORAK
T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM TAFB AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA...WHICH
SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CONVECTION HAS BEEN STEADILY WEAKENING IN THE PAST FEW HOURS
DESPITE PERSISTENT SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST SSMI AND AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE HELD AT 30 KT. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
A LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SST ENVIRONMENT. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
UNCLEAR...WITH THE GFDL DELAYING SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING UNTIL
BEYOND 72 HOURS WHEN IT TURNS TEN-E INTO AN 81 KT HURRICANE...AND
SHIPS WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS WHICH CALLS FOR SLOW BUT
STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN HOLDING STEADY AT 96
AND 120 HOURS DUE TO POSSIBLE SOUTHERLY SHEAR ONCE THE SYSTEM
CROSSES 140W.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A STEADY 265/12. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS
LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A STRONG 
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE
WEST MOTION THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE GFS DEPICTING A WEAKER
SYSTEM THAN THE OTHER MODELS...THUS BEING STEERED MORE BY THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND EVER SO
SLIGHTLY SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS AND
CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE
BEYOND 72 HOURS AND DEVELOP A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 600-700 NM
NE OF HAWAII. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN THE SYSTEM
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST...BUT NOT AS FAR NORTH AS
THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL SUGGESTS.  
 
THE POSSIBILITY OF A BINARY INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TEN-E IS LESSENING AS THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE DISTURBANCE...FURTHER
INCREASING THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.
 
FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0900Z 14.1N 125.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 14.0N 127.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 13.9N 129.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 13.8N 132.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 13.7N 135.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 14.0N 139.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 14.5N 143.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 15.0N 147.0W    60 KT
  
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