Tropical Depression TEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2005
 
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH HAS BEEN NOTED WITH T.D. TEN THIS
MORNING...WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES A CONSENSUS T2.0...30
KT...FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES. THIS WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NEW BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE APPARENT CENTER
WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED DATA. THE DEPRESSION IS
SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WEST TO
140W. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND FAVOR AT
LEAST MODEST INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER 27C SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM TO 50 KT IN 48 HOURS...THEN
HOLDING STEADY THROUGH 120 HOURS AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SSTS COOL
SLIGHTLY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS MOTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS
BASED PRIMARILY ON A COMBINATION OF MICROWAVE DATA FROM LAST NIGHT
AND CONTINUITY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND KEEP THE
SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT BETWEEN
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH FAVOR A WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST
MOTION...AND THE STATISTICAL MODELS WHICH KEEP A WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND MAINTAINS A STEADY 270-280 DEGREE MOTION THROUGH
120 HOURS. 
 
FORECASTER MOLLEDA/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 15.5N 117.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 15.9N 118.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 16.3N 120.9W    40 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 16.5N 123.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.8N 125.9W    50 KT
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N 131.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N 136.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     17/1200Z 17.0N 142.0W    50 KT
 
 
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