Tropical Depression TEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2005
 
CONVECTION WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY YESTERDAY EVENING UNTIL A NEW BUT
FAIRLY SMALL BURST DEVELOPED AFTER ABOUT 04Z.  THE SYSTEM IS
MAINTAINED AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION BASED ON A 02Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
AND ON THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS.  EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM
HAS NOT LOOKED VERY IMPRESSIVE RECENTLY... THE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING... WITH WEAK
SHEAR RESULTING FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
DEPRESSION AND EXTENDING WESTWARD. SINCE OCEAN CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE... WITH SSTS 27C OR GREATER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FOR
THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS... SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED
UNTIL REACHING SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8... WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY
THE EASTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO ALONG ABOUT 23N.
THE FORWARD SPEED IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY SINCE THE
CONVECTION IS NOT ALL THAT DEEP AND THE RIDGE CURRENTLY IS A BIT
NARROW.  HOWEVER... THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TOWARD HAWAII DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS... LEAVING LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS... AT AN INCREASING
RATE OF FORWARD SPEED.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH
OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... LEANING MORE TOWARD THE
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 15.0N 115.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 15.2N 117.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 15.6N 119.4W    40 KT
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 15.9N 121.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 16.1N 124.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N 129.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     16/0600Z 17.0N 134.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     17/0600Z 17.0N 140.0W    50 KT
 
 
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