Tropical Storm EUGENE

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TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005
 
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSU-B OVERPASS DEPICT THAT
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH
DEVELOPING BANDS OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTH QUADRANTS AND COLDER
TOPS. THE WIND RADII HAS BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE SE AND SW QUADRANTS
WHERE THE STRONGER BANDS RESIDE USING THE QUIKSCAT DATA. SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA AND 45 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND THE TWO DVORAK 45 KT CLASSIFICATIONS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED
OFF OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS...WITH STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE OTHER
HAND INDICATE A SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WEAKENING TREND WITH
DISSIPATION IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...WHICH IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 320/10...BASED ON SATELLITE
ANIMATION...PREVIOUS MICROWAVE PASSES...AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. 
EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES. AFTERWARD...A WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO TRACK WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND THE BAMM AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER.

 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 17.9N 107.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 18.9N 108.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 20.2N 110.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 21.0N 111.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 21.6N 112.8W    45 KT
 72HR VT     22/0600Z 22.3N 115.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     23/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     24/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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