Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005
 
INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TD-16E HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDING
FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED AND DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD
-80C HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AR T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND
AFWA... AND 25 KT FROM SAB. AN EARLIER UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WAS 1005 MB AND 33 KT... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 270/4. A LARGE AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL TO SLOWLY FILL
AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS
ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
NORTHERN MEXICO TO SLOWLY BUILD/SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
TD-16E SHOULD ACT TO FORCE THE CYCLONE IN A GENERAL WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK... EXCEPT THAT THE FORECAST TIME
LENGTH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 120 HOURS NOW THAT THE SHIPS AND THE
OTHER MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE ALIVE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER AT LEAST 28C SSTS FOR THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. IN FACT... THE WATER MAY BE WARMER THAN THAT BASED ON
AN SST REPORT OF 84F/29C FROM DRIFTING BUOY 32640 LOCATED NORTH OF
TD-16E. THE CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR OF 21 KT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 KT AFTER 48 HOURS... SO SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH
BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 42 KT BY 96 HOURS. 
 
FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 11.0N 102.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 10.9N 103.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 10.8N 103.9W    30 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 10.5N 104.8W    35 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 10.3N 106.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     19/0600Z  9.9N 108.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     20/0600Z  9.5N 111.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     21/0600Z  9.5N 115.5W    35 KT

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