Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI OCT 14 2005
 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
ABOUT 400 NMI SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES
HAVE ALSO IMPROVED... AS HAVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TAFB
REPORTED A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT WITH A DATA
T-NUMBER OF T2.4/35 KT... AND THE 3HR ODT AVERAGE WAS T2.9/44 KT
WITH A PEAK RAW ODT VALUE OF T3.5/55 KT. HOWEVER... CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED IN THE CURVED BAND ON THE WEST SIDE SINCE 00Z... SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY...OR POSSIBLY A SLOW DRIFT
TOWARD THE WEST. THE NHC MODELS ARE WIDELY DIVERGENT WITH A MOTION
BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. THE GFDL TAKES THE DEPRESSION
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY AND INTENSIFIES IT INTO AN 81-KT
HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS. THE REST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM
RELATIVELY WEAK AND EVEN DISSIPATE IT BY 48 HOURS. GIVEN THAT
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AT THIS TIME AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD... ONLY A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE GENERAL TREND INDICATED
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY... THE GFDL IS QUITE ROBUST IN INTENSIFYING
THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE GFDL HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD LESSER INTENSIFICATION WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN
SINCE 00Z YESTERDAY WHEN IT WAS FORECASTING A 95-KT HURRICANE.
GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE... AND THE SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM AND FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IN WHICH THE
CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY CALLS FOR VERY
MODEST INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY
MODEL WHICH ONLY BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 44 KT BY 96 HOURS. 
 
FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 11.0N 101.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 11.0N 101.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 11.0N 102.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 11.0N 103.2W    35 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 11.0N 103.9W    40 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 11.0N 105.3W    40 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 11.0N 106.6W    40 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 11.0N 108.0W    40 KT
 
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