Hurricane HILARY

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HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082005
0300Z SUN AUG 21 2005
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 104.7W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  25SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  50SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 175SE 175SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 104.7W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 104.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.9N 106.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  25SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 23.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 104.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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