Hurricane HILARY

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TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU AUG 25 2005
 
THE POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY HAS
BECOME RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY.  
FORTUNATELY...A TIMELY 0543Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS PROVED TO BE
BENEFICIAL IN PINPOINTING THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY T-NUMBERS
CONTINUE TO DROP...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A RAPID WEAKENING TREND...WITH
DISSIPATION WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8.  DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AFTERWARDS WITHIN THE LOW
TO MID LEVEL FLOW OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0900Z 23.3N 119.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 24.0N 120.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 24.8N 122.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 25.3N 124.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 25.7N 126.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 26.0N 131.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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