Hurricane HILARY

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 23 2005
 
HILARY CONTINUES TO HAVE DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CENTER WITH A FEW CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BANDS AND A BANDING TYPE EYE. 
T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 70 KNOTS. HILARY IS ALREADY NEARING LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE COMPLETELY OVER COOL WATERS IN
A DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  

HILARY CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT
9 KNOTS AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THEN NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE 
CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME SHALLOW IT WILL LIKELY TO BE STEERED
WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 19.8N 115.2W    70 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 20.5N 116.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 21.3N 118.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 22.0N 119.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 23.5N 123.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 24.0N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     28/1200Z 24.0N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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