Hurricane HILARY

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HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 22 2005

HILARY APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND.  ALTHOUGH
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY WELL-DEFINED BANDING
FEATURES...THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...PARTICULARLY IN THE
INNER CORE.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT...WHICH IS ROUGHLY
THE MEAN OF THE DVORAK T NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS....BUT SLOW WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DUE TO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER OCEAN WATERS AND A STABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE.  HILARY COULD
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS WAS NOTED IN THE DISCUSSION FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THE
FORWARD SPEED OF HILARY WAS EXPECTED TO SLOW WITHIN 24 HOURS DUE TO
A WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. 
THIS SLOWING HAS OCCURRED A LITTLE SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED...AND
THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10.  A FURTHER DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING.  A TURN TO THE WEST IS SHOWN
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS THE WEAKENED CYCLONE RESPONDS TO A
BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST DAY OR TWO AND
MORE OR LESS THE SAME THEREAFTER.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 18.7N 112.8W    85 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 19.2N 114.4W    80 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 19.8N 116.2W    75 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 20.3N 117.5W    70 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 20.8N 118.8W    60 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 21.5N 121.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 22.0N 124.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     27/1800Z 22.5N 129.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 
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