Hurricane HILARY

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HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT AUG 20 2005
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND IS RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.
T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE
SUGGESTING THAT HILARY HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. LATEST AMSU ESTIMATE
FROM CIRA/NESDIS ALSO SUPPORTS HURRICANE INTENSITY. THEREFORE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OCEAN IS
WARM...SO ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS HILARY TO 90 KNOTS...THE HURRICANE COULD
INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD
BE NEARING COOLER WATERS SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN. 

HILARY CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS
AROUND A RATHER STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UNITED
STATES WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO. THE RIDGE SHOULD BECOME ERODED ON
ITS WESTERN PORTION AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE UNITED SATES. THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD INDUCE A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK
ENVELOPE. THE UK AND THE NOGAPS MODELS SHOW THE NORTHERNMOST TRACK
BUT THEY ALL KEEP THE HURRICANE AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. ONLY THE
GFDN...WHICH IS THE BASICALLY THE GFDL USING THE NOGAPS MODEL AS A
BACKGROUND...TURNS HILARY NORTHWARD OVER BAJA. 

RAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
FROM PUERTO ESCONDIDO WESTWARD. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST AND JUST NORTH OF HILARY REPORTED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS EARLIER TODAY.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 14.5N 104.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 14.9N 106.8W    75 KT
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 15.5N 109.5W    85 KT
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 16.5N 112.0W    90 KT
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W    90 KT
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 18.5N 116.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     25/0000Z 20.5N 118.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     26/0000Z 23.0N 120.0W    55 KT
 
 
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