Tropical Depression EIGHT-E

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 19 2005
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING
AND CONSISTS OF A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A FEW CONVECTIVE BANDS BUT
DEVOID OF AN INNER CONVECTIVE CORE. SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
WARM WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.  THEREFORE...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE REACHING
COOLER WATERS BY DAY 5. 

BECAUSE THE PRESENCE OF VARIOUS SMALL CIRCULATION CENTERS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MUCH LARGER GYRE...IT IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE INITIAL
MOTION. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS AROUND A WELL ESTABLISHED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS
MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE
ON ITS WESTERN PORTION AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES BY THE AREA. THIS
WOULD RESULT ON A TRACK A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT. MOST OF THE
RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. 
 
SOME RAINBANDS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 13.6N  97.7W    25 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 14.0N 100.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 14.5N 102.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 15.5N 105.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N 108.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 18.5N 112.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     23/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     24/1800Z 21.0N 117.0W    60 KT
 
 
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