Hurricane OTIS

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HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
 
...OTIS WEAKENS SOME BUT RESUMES A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD
TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS. 
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
230 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
 
OTIS IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A
SLOW MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR ON
SUNDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... BUT OTIS COULD STILL REACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AS A HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES... 165 KM.  HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
 
OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA.  RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH OTIS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
 
REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...22.0 N...111.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM
PDT.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
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