Hurricane OTIS

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005

...OTIS CONTINUING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGHER
   ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO.
THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 230 MILES... 375 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO
MEXICO.
 
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE
TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OTIS
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO  80 MILES...130 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND SPEED OF 46 MPH...74 KM/HR... AND A GUST TO 61 MPH...98 KM/HR
WERE REPORTED AT CABO SAN LUCAS AT A HEIGHT OF 735 FT...224 METERS
ABOVE SEA LEVEL.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TOMORROW.
 
REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...21.6 N...111.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM PDT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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