Hurricane OTIS

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HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152005
0900Z SAT OCT 01 2005
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.  HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO LORETO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 111.7W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 111.7W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 111.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.5N 111.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.5N 112.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 25.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 26.5N 113.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 29.5N 113.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 32.5N 113.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 34.5N 112.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 111.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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