Hurricane OTIS

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HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152005
1500Z FRI SEP 30 2005
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO BAHIA
MAGDALENA ALONG TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA... BUT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
 
AT 8 AM PDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN
EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE  EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 110.7W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 110.7W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 110.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.8N 111.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.5N 111.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.5N 112.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 26.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 28.5N 113.5W...INLAND CENTRAL BAJA
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 31.5N 112.0W...INLAND NWRN MEXICO
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 110.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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