Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152005
0300Z THU SEP 29 2005
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 107.1W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 125SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 107.1W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 106.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.5N 108.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.3N 109.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.2N 110.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.1N 111.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
34 KT... 85NE  85SE  85SW  85NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 24.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 107.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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