Hurricane OTIS

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HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
 
THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM... WITH ONLY A
LIMITED AREA COLDER THAN -50C. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CI
NUMBERS AT 18Z WERE ALL NEAR 5.0/90 KT BUT WITH T NUMBERS 4.0/65
KT. AN AMSU OVERPASS AT 1357Z YIELDED INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 73-76
KT FROM CIMSS AND CIRA... AND A SSMIS OVERPASS AT 1608Z REVEALS
ONLY HALF OF AN EYEWALL REMAINING.  BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS... THE AMSU ESTIMATES... AND THE OVERALL
DETERIORATING STRUCTURE... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 75
KT. SHIPS FORECASTS OTIS TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR ONLY ANOTHER 12
HOURS OR SO... WHILE THE GFDL DOES SO THROUGH 24 HOURS. THE EFFECTS
OF OCEAN UPWELLING DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF THE HURRICANE
COULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY RAPID DECLINE IN THE INTENSITY. ON THE OTHER
HAND... IF OTIS GETS MOVING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST... IT COULD STILL HOLD ON TO HURRICANE INTENSITY UNTIL
MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THEREFORE... IT IS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN THE
HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALREADY IN PLACE.  OTIS IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER PASSING OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... AND AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR INCREASES.

OTIS BECAME ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY DURING THE MORNING HOURS... BUT
IT APPEARS TO HAVE RECENTLY RESUMED A SLOW MOTION... ABOUT 350/3.  
THE WEAK STEERING RESULTS FROM OTIS BEING CAUGHT BETWEEN A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE
VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON HOW FAST
THIS PATTERN WILL MOVE OTIS... BUT AT LEAST THEY AGREE ON THE
GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STALL
EARLIER TODAY AND TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS... BUT IS
ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE SAME NORTHWARD PATH.  OTIS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS AS IT REACHES MAINLAND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 22.0N 111.9W    75 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 22.5N 112.2W    65 KT
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 23.6N 112.7W    60 KT
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 25.2N 113.1W    60 KT
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 26.9N 113.4W    50 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 29.5N 113.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     05/1800Z 31.5N 113.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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