Tropical Storm CALVIN

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TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005

CALVIN HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST AT A FASTER
FORWARD SPEED...NEAR 11 KT.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN
EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO A
CONTINUED MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST.  THIS IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN...BUT OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO...THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT
35 KT...IN LINE WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.  THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PROSPECT FOR
RESTRENGTHENING SINCE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST OVER THE SYSTEM
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER A
DAY OR SO WHEN CALVIN TRAVERSES COOLER WATERS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MEXICO IS DISCONTINUED...AND PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM ARE BEING TERMINATED.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/1500Z 16.1N 104.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 16.3N 105.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 16.6N 107.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 16.8N 109.4W    30 KT
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 17.0N 111.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 17.0N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     02/1200Z 17.0N 115.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     03/1200Z 17.0N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
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