Tropical Storm DORA

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005
 
SATELLITE ANIMATION AND EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT A LACK
OF DEEP CONVECTION AND A POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER...CONFIRMED BY THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE SATELLITE POSITION
ESTIMATES.  SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO
25 AND 30 KT.  INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/10.  DORA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WITHIN THE LOW/MID STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE BAM MODELS...NHC/91 STATISTICAL
MODEL...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
ALTHOUGH DIURNAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN
DEPRESSION STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER
WATER.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 18.6N 106.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 18.8N 107.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 19.0N 109.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 19.2N 111.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 19.3N 113.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 19.5N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 19.5N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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