Tropical Storm DORA

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TROPICAL STORM
DORA HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING
AROUND A SMALL CIRCULATION CENTER...BUT THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND
HAS PREVENTED ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION FROM
OCCURRING. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT ANY WORSE THAN
WHEN A 40-KT SHIP REPORT WAS RECEIVED EARLIER IN THE DAY...SO THE
INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED
EAST-WEST ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA IS BEGINNING
TO EXERT MORE OF A WESTWARD INFLUENCE ON DORA...POSSIBLY AT A
SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS OR SO...ROUGHLY PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO. OF COURSE...
ANY WOBBLE TO THE RIGHT WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE...BUT BY 48
HOURS THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO TOWARD COLDER
WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE BAM MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BEEN IMPROVING...BUT THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MEXICAN COAST HAS LIKELY BEEN INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER THAT CAN SPIN UP THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX...BUT ANY
SUSTAINED INTENSIFICATION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM STARTS
PULLING AWAY FROM MEXICO...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER
WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL SOLUTION...AND
LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS DORA UP TO 62 KT IN 48
HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 17.2N 101.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 17.7N 102.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 18.4N 103.9W    40 KT
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 19.0N 105.4W    40 KT
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 19.5N 107.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     08/0000Z 20.0N 110.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     09/0000Z 20.0N 114.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     10/0000Z 20.0N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN