Tropical Depression FOUR-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM PDT SUN JUL 03 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE ACAPULCO RADAR INDICATE THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOUR-E. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 04/00Z WERE A CONSENSUS
T1.5/25 KT...BUT RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT A TIGHT BANDING FEATURE
HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. STRONG CONVECTION HAS
ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND A 04/0014Z QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS INDICATED A TIGHT SURFACE CIRCULATION AND A FEW
UNCONTAMINATED WINDS OF 25-30 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/05. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND TEXAS. THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO...BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FILL IN AND CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED
BY 36 HOURS OR SO. A MORE WESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED AFTER 72 HOURS
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COLDER WATER AND WEAKENS...AND IS STEERED
MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM BAM AND GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFDL MODEL
BRINGS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE VERY CLOSE TO MEXICAN COAST IN
24-36 HOURS...WHICH HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AND WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

TD-3E IS A SMALL AND COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS IT WILL
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. RIGHT NOW...A
STRONG BURST OF -75 TO -80C TOPS HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE
CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT OUTFLOW TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LAND FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN MOVING OVER
COLDER WATER AFTERWARDS...WILL PROBABLY PREVENT THIS CYCLONE FROM
REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.

FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0400Z 14.8N  99.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 15.4N 100.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 16.2N 101.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 16.9N 102.1W    45 KT
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 17.8N 103.7W    50 KT
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 19.0N 106.8W    40 KT
 96HR VT     08/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     09/0000Z 20.0N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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