Tropical Storm GREG

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2005
 
GOES SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY... AND A 0226Z SSMI OVERPASS...
CONTINUE TO REVEAL AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THE NEAREST
CONVECTION... WHICH IS EXTREMELY LIMITED... IS ABOUT 50 N MI TO THE
WEST... SO EASTERLY SHEAR MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE SYSTEM.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 30 KT... AS DOES THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.
 
PERHAPS IN PART BECAUSE IT IS BEING DRAGGED ALONG BY THE CONVECTION
TO ITS WEST... THE CENTER OF GREG APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A VERY
SLOW WESTWARD MOTION... ESTIMATED AT 270/2. THE FORECAST SOLUTIONS
FROM THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP...
LITERALLY... BUT AT LEAST THEY ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING A
GENERAL WESTWARD TREND. THE GFDL FORECASTS A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD
DRIFT AS A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION INTO A
HURRICANE. THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION... APPARENTLY DUE TO JUST ENOUGH NARROW LOW-LEVEL RIDGING
WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
INDICATE VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD... WHICH IS NOT AS FAST OR AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE
MODELS. DUE TO THE CURRENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION... AND
SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... NO
INTENSITY CHANGE IS INDICATED... DESPITE THE AGGRESSIVE GFDL
FORECAST. IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE... ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DEPRESSION
MIGHT NOT EVEN SURVIVE MUCH LONGER.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 14.4N 115.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 14.4N 116.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 14.2N 117.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 14.0N 117.9W    30 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 13.7N 118.9W    30 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 13.5N 121.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 13.5N 122.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     20/0600Z 13.5N 124.0W    30 KT
 
 
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