Tropical Storm GREG

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TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005
 
THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GREG REMAINS EXPOSED NORTH
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST FEW INFRARED SHORTWAVE
IMAGES DEPICT A DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURE ABOUT 30 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS BEEN
HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT MAY BE STARTING TO WEAKEN SOME. AN EARLIER
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW UNCONTAMINATED 35 KT VECTORS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY WILL STAY AT 35
KT EVEN THOUGH THE DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KT. THE 34 KT
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TO CONFORM
TO THE QUIKSCAT DATA.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...GRADUALLY INCREASING GREG TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY DAY
2....THEN MAINTAINING 65 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND
SHIPS SOLUTIONS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/6. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...A LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE A GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.  AFTERWARDS...THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE BETWEEN
HURRICANE FERNANDA AND GREG SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM CREATING A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0900Z 15.1N 114.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 15.3N 114.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 15.2N 115.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 14.7N 116.1W    55 KT
 48HR VT     15/0600Z 14.2N 117.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     16/0600Z 14.2N 119.8W    65 KT
 96HR VT     17/0600Z 14.5N 123.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     18/0600Z 15.0N 125.5W    65 KT
 
 
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