Hurricane NORA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED OCT 08 2003

A PASS FROM THE ADEOS-II SEAWINDS SCATTEROMETER AROUND 0520 UTC
SHOWED MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 25 KT.  THIS IS A REASONABLE
ESTIMATE FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY...SINCE THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE
ABOUT 30 KT 6-12 HOURS AGO AND THE SYSTEM HAS LIKELY BEEN SPINNING
DOWN SINCE THAT TIME.  EVEN THOUGH THE SST IS AROUND 28 C...THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNABLE TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION...PERHAPS DUE TO
A STABLE ATMOSPHERE.  THE CIRCULATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN
DOWN...AND DISSIPATE IN A FEW DAYS.

NORA IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF A LARGE LOW
CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0900Z 20.7N 108.7W    25 KT
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 21.7N 107.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 23.0N 107.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     09/1800Z 24.1N 107.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     10/0600Z 25.0N 108.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
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