Hurricane NORA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2003
 
NORA REMAINS A SHALLOW CIRCULATION WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE SINCE NORA IS CLOSE TO
LAND...AND IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 27
DEGREES CELSIUS.  WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NORA COULD REGAIN
CONVECTION OVER EVEN WARMER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THIS
APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO STRONG AND PERSISTENT VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE
SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BOTH FORECAST A 25 TO 30 KT SYSTEM FOR TWO TO
THREE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR DISSIPATION IN LESS THAN
24 HOURS...BUT IT RETAINS A REMNANT LOW OUT TO 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER...NOW 080/12.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE AHEAD AND TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  NORA IS
MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER COLD LOW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS...WHICH TAKES THE REMNANT
LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0300Z 20.4N 109.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 21.2N 108.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 22.3N 107.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 23.5N 107.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     10/0000Z 24.6N 108.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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