Hurricane NORA

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TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2003
 
WITH ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION GONE IT APPEARS THAT NORA HAS
ENVELOPED DRY AND STABLE AIR AND APPEARS TO BE WINDING DOWN.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 35 KTS.  IN ADDITION TO THE STABLE AIR
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW NOW WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN AND DECAY OF THE SYSTEM...EVEN THOUGH WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IF NORA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST
TRACK.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/2...A DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  GLOBAL
MODELS TAKE THE REMAINS OF NORA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENNINSULA
AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK LARGELY FOLLOWS THE GUNA CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0300Z 20.4N 113.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 20.8N 113.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 21.6N 112.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 22.6N 110.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     09/0000Z 24.0N 110.0W    DISSIPATED
 
 
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