Hurricane NORA

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HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2003
 
LATEST T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVE 102 AND 90 KTS RESPECTIVELY. 
HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS
BECOME OBSCURE AND THE OUTFLOW FROM OLAF IS STARTING TO DISRUPT
NORA'S OUTFLOW.  NORA MAY HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AT 90 KTS
AND THAT IS WHAT THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL BE FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
NORA CONTINUES MOVING AT 315/8. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWEST AROUND A RIDGE OVER MEXICO...TURN NORTH AND SLOW DOWN 
DUE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING FLOW AND THEN...IN
ABOUT 48 TO 60 HOURS...BE ADVECTED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST .  
 
SHIPS GUIDANCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS NORA THROUGH DAY 4 AND DISSIPATES
THE SYSTEM AT DAY 5.  THE MAIN REASON IS VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT THE
SHIPS MODEL HAS THE SHEAR DIRECTION COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DUE
TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHEN IN REALITY NORA IS NOW
BEGINNING TO FEEL THE OUTFLOW FROM OLAF WHICH IS COMING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.  SO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS USED BUT MODIFIED SLIGHTLY DUE
TO THE CURRENT SHEAR PATTERN.   
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 18.3N 112.8W    90 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 19.1N 113.4W    90 KT
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 20.1N 114.0W    85 KT
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 20.8N 114.2W    80 KT
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 21.4N 114.3W    70 KT
 72HR VT     08/0000Z 22.6N 114.3W    55 KT
 96HR VT     09/0000Z 23.7N 114.1W    45 KT
120HR VT     10/0000Z 24.8N 113.9W    35 KT
 
 
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