Hurricane NORA

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HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2003
 
NORA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED
EYE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 90 KT FROM TAFB AND 102 KT
FROM SAB.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/6. THE FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS NORA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AROUND A RIDGE OVER MEXICO INTO A DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS. THE GFS REMAINS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
BUT IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS.  A
BAROCLINIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 120W AND CAUSE NORA
TO SLOW CONSIDERABLY AND MOVE IN A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AS NORA REMAINS OVER SSTS
GREATER THAN 27C...AND WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER DUE TO STEADILY INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER SSTS NEAR 26C.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 17.2N 111.8W    90 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 18.0N 112.4W   100 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 19.3N 113.3W   100 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 20.2N 113.9W    90 KT
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 20.8N 114.1W    80 KT
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 21.5N 114.2W    65 KT
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 21.9N 114.2W    50 KT
120HR VT     09/1200Z 22.4N 114.1W    40 KT
 
 
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