Hurricane NORA

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2003
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF NORA CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB. 
NORA IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE.  AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTED
THAT A EYE MAY BE FORMING BUT...THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECENT
MICROWAVE DATA TO CONFIRM THIS.

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED A LITTLE MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL MOTION WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AND IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 305/6. THE FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS NORA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST
AROUND A RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO
THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND UKMET.  THE GFS CONTINUES
TO BE THE WESTERN MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. IT APPEARS THAT THE
GFS IS INTIALIZING THE SYSTEM TOO WEAK AND IS TRACKING IT FURTHER
WEST.  A TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN 
115 AND 120W WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SLOW AND
MOVE MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST. IF THE SYSTEMS REMAINS STRONGER...IT
COULD BE STEERED MORE NORTHWARD BY THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY 
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT OF
A COMPROMISE AND INDICATES A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FROM DAYS 3
THROUGH 5.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY AND BRINGS
NORA TO A 75 KT HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS.  THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER BY 48 HOURS AND WEAKENING SHOULD
COMMENCE. IN THE LONGER RANGE...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MORE
RAPIDLY AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT.
 
FORECASTER BROWN/JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 16.4N 110.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 17.1N 111.0W    75 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 18.3N 111.9W    75 KT
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 19.5N 112.7W    75 KT
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 20.6N 113.3W    65 KT
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 21.5N 113.7W    50 KT
 96HR VT     08/0000Z 21.7N 113.6W    40 KT
120HR VT     09/0000Z 21.9N 113.5W    30 KT
 
 
NNNN