Tropical Storm NORA

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TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2003
 
NORA IS ALMOST A HURRICANE.  RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES...FROM TRMM
AT 1312 UTC AND SSMI AT 1513 UTC...REVEAL A FORMATIVE EYE AND
INCREASED BANDING.  THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND HINTS OF AN EYE DEVELOPING WITHIN
THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION ARE APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. BASED
ON THIS INFORMATION...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...BUT
RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE A FASTER MOTION THAN THIS
MORNING...NOW 325/6. FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE AND PHILOSOPHY ARE
OTHERWISE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THROUGH 72
HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF
THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND UKMET.  THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER...THE MODEL
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK AND AS A RESULT FOLLOWS A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A
VERY SLOW MOTION IN A VARIETY OF DIRECTIONS... IN AN AREA OF WEAK
STEERING TO THE SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. 
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STATIONARY AT
DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE.
 
NORA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR AND OVER SSTS OF 27C OR GREATER FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL IN
BRINGING THE STORM TO 70 KT IN 24 HOURS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER...AS WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...AND THE CYCLONE SITS OVER 26C SSTS.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 16.2N 109.9W    60 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 16.9N 110.4W    65 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 18.1N 111.3W    70 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 19.3N 112.2W    70 KT
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 20.4N 113.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 21.5N 113.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 21.5N 113.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     08/1800Z 21.5N 113.5W    30 KT
 
 
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