Tropical Storm NORA

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TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2003

CONVECTIVE BANDING IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING...ESPECIALLY VERY NEAR THE
CDO FEATURE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 45 TO 55 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT.

BASED UPON FIXES FROM A 0239 UTC SSMI OVERPASS AND MORE RECENT
INFRARED IMAGERY...NORA APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335/4.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AT A
SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS...ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  THIS
TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT
INCLUDES THE GFS ON THE LEFT AND UKMET ON THE RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...MODELS NOW AGREE THAT NORA WILL SLOW
DOWN CONSIDERABLY IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING TO THE SOUTH OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND SLOWER BEYOND 72 HOURS.

NORA WILL REMAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND
OVER SSTS EXCEEDING 27C FOR ABOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE SHIPS
MODEL BRINGS THE TROPICAL STORM TO MINIMAL HURRICANE STATUS IN 24
HOURS...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE INTENSITY SHOULD THEN
REMAIN STEADY THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS.  BEYOND THEN...THE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY OVER 26C SSTS WITH SOME INCREASE IN
SHEAR...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 15.5N 109.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 16.1N 109.8W    60 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 17.2N 110.6W    65 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 18.5N 111.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 19.6N 112.6W    65 KT
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 21.0N 113.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     07/1200Z 21.3N 113.7W    50 KT
120HR VT     08/1200Z 21.6N 113.9W    40 KT
 
 
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