Tropical Storm NORA

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TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2003

VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES...SO THE CENTER
HAS BEEN RELOCATED ON THIS ADVISORY.  BEST GUESS ON CURRENT MOTION
IS STATIONARY.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OR WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF 120W IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS...COMBINED WITH A WEAK RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST...IS EXPECTED TO STEER NORA ON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK.  HOWEVER IF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST BECOMES MORE
DOMINANT IT COULD CAUSE NORA TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THAT
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND SIMILAR TO THE GUNA MODEL
CONSENSUS.

THE STORM HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A RAGGED BAND
HAVING DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB
AND AFWA...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS NOW 40 KT. 
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL COOLER WATER
HALTS DEVELOPMENT.  THIS INTENSITY PREDICTION IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE
LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED... HOWEVER...THAT PURELY
DYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL AND THE GFS SHOW NORA WEAKENING.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 15.2N 109.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 15.3N 109.2W    45 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 16.7N 110.8W    55 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 17.5N 111.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 20.0N 113.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 22.0N 114.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     07/1800Z 23.5N 115.5W    40 KT
 
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