Tropical Storm NORA

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TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2003
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 0404Z SSMI PASS DEPICT A RELATIVELY SMALL SYMMETRIC
SYSTEM WITH A COLD...CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DEVELOPMENT. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM
AFWA. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 35 KT.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S CENTER IS RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY...HOWEVER...USE OF THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY
HAS HELPED IN DETERMINING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER POSITION. INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/03. A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWEST MOTION.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM MEXICO IS
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS DEVELOPING WEAKNESS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/BAJA
COAST SHOULD CAUSE THE NORTHWEST TURN AFTER 36 HOURS.
NOGAPS...GFDL...THE CANADIAN...AND THE UKMET ALL REFLECT A TURN
WITHIN THE WEAKNESS WITHIN 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE GFS INDICATES A
WEAKER TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SHOWS LESS AMPLITUDE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH...THUS MAINTAINING ENOUGH RIDGING IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS TO
CREATE A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NOGAPS/GFDL/CANADIAN/UKMET
CLUSTER.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND
STEADILY INTENSIFIES THE TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS. LEADING
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD TRIGGER A WEAKENING
TREND.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 15.7N 109.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 15.8N 109.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 16.1N 110.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 16.4N 111.2W    55 KT
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 17.0N 112.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 19.0N 114.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     06/0600Z 20.5N 115.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     07/0600Z 21.5N 116.5W    50 KT
 
 
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