Tropical Storm CARLOS

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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2003
 
CARLOS TRIED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT MADE LANDFALL.  SSM/I
OVERPASSES AT 0220Z AND 0321Z INDICATED THAT A WELL-DEFINED EYE HAD
FORMED UNDER THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST...WITH THE LATTER OVERPASS
SHOWING THE EYE CROSSING THE MEXICAN COAST.  BASED ON THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE AT THAT TIME...WHICH INCLUDED AN OCCASIONAL WARM
SPOT...IT IS BELIEVED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST 55 KT. 
SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DECAYED AS THE CENTER HAS EDGED
INLAND.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/6.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD DEFLECT CARLOS MORE TOWARD THE
WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY
NHC TRACK GUIDANCE.  OF COURSE...ALL OF THESE THINGS WERE SEEN LAST
NIGHT AND CARLOS WOUND UP MOVING NORTHWARD.  GIVEN THAT CAVEAT...
THE TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IN THE NEXT 12 HR...WITH THAT MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CENTER
JUST INLAND THROUGH 72 HR...THEN HAVE IT EMERGE OVER THE PACIFIC
WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES BY 96 HR.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS EXTREMELY PROBLEMATIC.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR CARLOS TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION YET SURVIVE
OVER LAND FOR 72 HR.  EVEN IF THE STORM STAYS AS CLOSE TO THE COAST
AS FORECAST THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER BACK TO
THE PACIFIC AND ALLOW CARLOS TO EITHER STRENGTHEN OR WEAKEN MORE
SLOWLY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT WOULD
RESULT IN DISSIPATION OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS...AND THAT EVEN IF
CARLOS SURVIVES THE WATERS WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES ARE TOO COLD TO
SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT RE-DEVELOPMENT.

HEAVY RAINS WITH ASSOCIATED FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO UNTIL CARLOS EITHER MOVES OUT OR
COMPLETELY DISSIPATES.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0900Z 16.4N  97.9W    50 KT
 12HR VT     27/1800Z 16.8N  98.6W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     28/0600Z 17.2N  99.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N 100.6W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     29/0600Z 17.9N 101.6W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     30/0600Z 19.0N 104.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     01/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT     02/0600Z 21.0N 109.0W    25 KT
 
 
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