Tropical Storm ANDRES

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TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU MAY 22 2003

ANDRES IS STILL FIGHTING THE SHEAR. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES
TO BE LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY
THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA AND A FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE. BASED ON
DVORAK T-NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
CURRENT CLOUD PATTERN AND WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS HEADING FOR ANDRES. IN FACT...THE GFS IS NOW FORECASTING
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER ANDRES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BEFORE THE MODEL DEVELOPS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE.
ANDRES THEN HAS THE CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE 36 AND 48 HOUR
PERIOD. THEREAFTER... REGARDLESS OF SHEAR... ANDRES SHOULD BE
APPROACHING COOLER WATER AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

ANDRES IS RIGHT ON COURSE...MOVING 280 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF A PERSISTENT STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE. A
GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHES THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE. BECAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WELL
ESTABLISHED...THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LEAST
FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.         
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 11.3N 117.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 11.8N 120.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 12.5N 123.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 13.0N 125.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 14.0N 128.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 15.0N 132.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     27/1200Z 17.0N 140.0W    20 KT
 
 
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