Tropical Storm ANDRES

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   4...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE MAY 20 2003

CORRECTED 36 AND 48 HOURS FORECAST LOCATIONS AND INTENSITIES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11.  GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM FOR THE NEXT 120 HOURS.
THE  TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS WARMED AND HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC
BUT WITH MORE PRONOUNCED BANDING.  ALSO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS
MOSTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION.  IN ANY CASE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS.  THE GFDL REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODEL BRINGING THE WIND SPEED TO 93 KNOTS IN 42
HOURS...WHILE THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS FORECAST LITTLE
CHANGE IN WIND SPEED FOR 120 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGING THE WIND SPEED TO 55 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS.
THE GFS SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AFTER 72 HOURS AND COOLER
SSTS ARE UNDER THE TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z  9.8N 106.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 10.1N 108.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 10.5N 111.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 11.0N 113.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 11.7N 116.4W    55 KT
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 13.5N 121.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 14.5N 124.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     25/1800Z 16.5N 127.0W    30 KT
 
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