Energy Plug: Summer 2000 Motor Gasoline Outlook

Summer 2000 Motor Gasoline Outlook

U.S. motorists can expect to pay an average of $1.46 per gallon at the pump for regular gasoline this summer (see table), the highest summer average price (in nominal dollars) since 1981. Autumn should bring some relief: by September, according to the Energy Information Administration's Summer 2000 Motor Gasoline Outlook, the retail price of regular gasoline is expected to fall to about $1.39.

Crude Oil and Motor Gasoline Prices, 1999 and 2000
(Cents per Gallon)

1999

2000

Percent Change

April-June

July-Sept.

April-Sept.

April-June

July-Sept.

April-Sept.

April-June

July-Sept.

April-Sept.

Imported Crude Oil^a
36.8

46.7

41.8

60.2

58.5

59.3

63.7

25.2

42.1

Wholesale Gasoline^b
61.7

72.6

67.2

94.2

87.3

90.7

52.7

20.1

35.0

Retail Gasoline^c
112.5

121.2

116.9

150.1

141.8

145.9

33.4

17.0

24.9

^aCost of imported crude oil to U.S. refiners.
^bPrice of gasoline sold by refiners to resellers.
^cAverage pump price for regular gasoline, including taxes.
Notes: Forecasts are in italics. Percent changes are computed from unrounded data.
Source: Energy Information Administration

Current high gasoline prices are the result of the production cutbacks made by major oil producers since 1998, which drove crude oil inventories down and prices up. Gasoline price trends expected during this driving season can be traced in part to these and other factors:

Motor gasoline stocks are low and will probably remain low throughout the driving season. The average draw-down of finished motor gasoline stocks this summer is projected to be 23,000 barrels per day, less than half last summer's rate.
Demand for gasoline is expected to average 8.7 million barrels per day, 1.5 percent higher than last summer.
Reduced availability of finished motor gasoline supplies from Europe and doubt about foreign refiners' ability to meet new reformulated gasoline requirements are expected to significantly reduce gasoline imports.

With demand up and stocks and imports less available as sources of supply, domestic gasoline producers are expected to increase their output. Refinery utilization rates should average 96.8 percent, about two and one-half percentage points higher than last summer. This increased production of gasoline will probably displace production of other petroleum products, especially distillate fuel. Fall heating oil supplies could be affected as a consequence.

Gasoline prices are dynamic and forecasts are subject to change. Monthly updated forecasts are available on EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook Web page.

Questions about the report's content should be directed to:: Michael Morris; michael.morris@eia.doe.gov; Phone: (202) 586-1199

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URL: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/plugs/plsummer.html
File last modified: May 24, 2000

Crude Oil and Motor Gasoline Prices, 1999 and 2000 (Cents per Gallon)
	1999			2000			Percent Change
	April-June	July-Sept.	April-Sept.	April-June	July-Sept.	April-Sept.	April-June	July-Sept.	April-Sept.
Imported Crude Oil^a	36.8	46.7	41.8	60.2	58.5	59.3	63.7	25.2	42.1
Wholesale Gasoline^b	61.7	72.6	67.2	94.2	87.3	90.7	52.7	20.1	35.0
Retail Gasoline^c	112.5	121.2	116.9	150.1	141.8	145.9	33.4	17.0	24.9
^aCost of imported crude oil to U.S. refiners. ^bPrice of gasoline sold by refiners to resellers. ^cAverage pump price for regular gasoline, including taxes. Notes: Forecasts are in italics. Percent changes are computed from unrounded data. Source: Energy Information Administration