World energy consumption is projected to increase 57 percent between 2002 and 2025, or by 2.0 percent per year on average—lower than the 2.2-percent average annual growth rate from 1970 to 2002—according to International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Emerging economies account for much of the projected growth in consumption, with energy use in that group more than doubling over the 23-year forecast period in the IEO2005 reference case.
The use of all energy sources increases over the forecast period, but oil remains dominant and fossil fuel use grows faster than nonfossil fuel use. World oil use is expected to grow from 78 million barrels per day in 2002 to 119 million barrels per day in 2025.Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to supply 60 percent of the projected increase. Non-OPEC suppliers are expected to add production capacity especially in the Caspian Basin, Western Africa, and Central and South America.
Oil prices are forecast to decline gradually through 2010 to $31 per barrel (in 2003 dollars) before beginning to rise to about $35 per barrel in 2025. However, based on information available as of July 2005, world oil prices will likely be revised upward when they are reconsidered for the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 2006.
Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing component of world primary energy consumption, increasing by an average of 2.3 percent annually from 2002 to 2025, compared with projected annual growth rates of 1.9 percent for oil consumption and 2.0 percent for coal consumption.
World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 1970-2025
Source: Energy Information Administration. The electric power sector accounts for 51 percent of the incremental natural gas demand and the industrial sector for 36 percent. Coal maintains its importance in both the electric power and industrial sectors.
World net electricity consumption nearly doubles in the reference case forecast. More than one-half (59 percent) of the growth occurs in the emerging economies, where electricity use increases on average by 4.0 percent per year, as compared with 2.6 percent per year worldwide.Consumption of electricity generated from nuclear power is projected to increase 28 percent from 2002 to 2025. Higher fossil fuel prices and the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol are expected to improve prospects for new nuclear power capacity.
In IEO2005, world total installed nuclear capacity rises from 361 gigawatts in 2002 to 422 gigawatts in 2025. Fifty-five gigawatts are added in the emerging Asian economies and 19 gigawatts in the transitional economies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union.
Hydroelectricity and other grid-connected renewable energy sources are expected to increase enough to maintain an 8-percent share of total energy use worldwide throughout the projection period. Much of the growth in renewable electricity generation is expected from the completion of large hydroelectric facilities in emerging economies, particularly in Asia.In the IEO2005 reference case, world carbon dioxide emissions rise from 24 billion metric tons in 2002 to 39 billion metric tons in 2025. The emerging economies account for 68 percent of the projected increase.
The IEO2005 reference case forecast does not include a detailed analysis of the potential impacts of the Kyoto Protocol. The implications of the treaty for energy use and carbon dioxide emissions are analyzed in a separate Kyoto Protocol case. In this case, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in the participating nations are projected to be 593 million metric tons lower than in the reference case in 2025.
The International Energy Outlook 2005 includes a high growth case and a low growth case in addition to the reference case. It provides an in-depth look at world oil markets and has projections for each major fuel, electricity, and energy consumption by end-use sector. The text and tables are enlivened by over 80 graphs. Ten appendices provide detailed statistics, explanations, and supplemental information.
International Energy Outlook 2005 DOE/EIA-0484(2005) is available on the EIA Web site at http://eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo
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File last modified: September 27, 2005