World Energy Consumption, 1970-2020 (Quadrillion Btu)

Source: Energy Information Administration.

World energy consumption is projected to rise 60 percent between 1999 and 2020, from 382 quadrillion Btu to 612 quadrillion Btu (see figure), according to the reference case in the Energy Information Administration's International Energy Outlook 2002 (IEO 2002). Widening energy demand in the developing world, especially in Asia and Central and South America, will account for much of the growth.

The U.S. refiner acquisition cost of imported crude oil dropped from $27.72 in 2000 to an estimated $22.05 in 2001 (nominal prices). World crude oil prices are expected to undergo only modest increases through the forecast period, reaching $25 per barrel (2000 dollars) in 2020. Against this backdrop, world demand for crude oil is projected to rise 2.2 percent per year to 242 quadrillion Btu in 2020 (119 million barrels per day); demand growth in developing countries is expected to average 3.3 percent per year. Projected demand growth for all types of energy is 2.3 percent per year globally and 3.7 percent annually in the developing world.

Crude oil is expected to retain its dominant position vis-à-vis other fuels, accounting for 40 percent of total energy consumption through the forecast period. However, the fastest-growing source of energy will be natural gas, according to the reference case projections. Natural gas consumption is expected to soar from 87 quadrillion Btu in 1999 to 169 quadrillion Btu in 2020; its share of total energy consumption will increase from 23 percent to 28 percent. Much of this growth is in response to rising demand for electricity generated by new natural gas-fired turbines, which is driven in turn by environmental, price, and energy-security concerns.

Growth in coal consumption will be much lower (a projected 1.7 percent per year) and its share of total consumption is projected to continue its recent decline and subside to 20 percent by 2020. This drop in share occurs despite projected increases in energy use in developing Asia, where coal remains a dominant fuel. Power generation remains the main driver of coal consumption growth, although the fuel is also vital to China's industrial sector.

The IEO 2002 reference case projects world nuclear capacity to rise from 350 gigawatts in 2000 to 363 gigawatts in 2010, but then to decline to 359 gigawatts in 2020. Consumption of electricity from nuclear power increases 0.5 percent per year worldwide. However, nuclear-generated electricity rises by 4.7 percent per year through 2020 in the developing nations. The nations of developing Asia account for half of all reactors now being built.

Although renewable energy consumption is expected to increase by over half through the forecast period, its share of total consumption falls from 9 percent to 8 percent, constrained by moderate fossil fuel prices. Lying behind much of the growth are large hydroelectric projects in developing Asia.

The broad desirability of electric power is reflected in its projected increase in consumption from 13 trillion kilowatthours in 1999 to 22 trillion kilowatthours in 2020. Once again, the strongest growth occurs in Asia (4.5 percent per year). Consumption growth in the mature industrialized economies is a more modest 1.9 percent per year.

Higher emissions of carbon dioxide inevitably follow greater use of fossil fuels. Although energy intensity (consumption per dollar of gross domestic product) decreases in most of the world through the forecast period, total emissions are expected to grow faster than in the 1990s, rising from 6.1 billion metric tons carbon equivalent in 1999 to 9.9 billion tons in 2020.

International Energy Outlook 2002, DOE/EIA-0484(2002); 285 pages, 90 tables, 98 figures. This report is available only on the EIA website.

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File last modified: April 25, 2002