World energy consumption is expected to soar 59 percent over the 1999 level by 2020, to a total of 607 quadrillion Btu, according to the reference-case projections in the Energy Information Administration's International Energy Outlook 2001 (see table). A major share of that growth is expected to occur in the developing world, especially Asia and Central and South America, where energy demand is expected to rise about 4 percent per year. Because most of the additional energy demand will be met by heavier use of carbon-based fuels, world carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 6.1 billion metric tons per year (carbon equivalent) to 9.8 billion metric tons during the forecast period.

The forecast increases in consumption and emissions come despite improvements in energy intensity (expressed as thousand Btu per dollar of gross domestic product). Energy intensity is expected to decline about 1.3 percent per year in the industrialized countries and 1.4 percent per year in the developing countries. It falls even faster in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, but from a level over four times as high in 1999 as that of the developed world.

Among the report's highlights:

Crude oil

In the reference-case forecast, oil continues to account for the largest share of world total energy consumption, at about 40 percent through 2020. Oil consumption is expected to increase 2.3 percent per year to 120 million barrels per day. By 2020, developing countries will account for nearly as much petroleum products consumption as the developed countries. Rising demand in the former comes from higher use in all sectors, while transportation demand accounts for most of the industrialized nations' increased consumption.

Natural gas

Global natural gas use is projected to grow more rapidly than that of any other fuel, nearly doubling to 162 trillion cubic feet in 2020 and increasing its share of total consumption to 28 percent. The incremental demand in developed nations will be primarily for electricity generation, while new demand comes from several sectors in the developing world.

Coal

Athough global coal consumption is expected to continue rising, its share of total energy consumption is expected to decline slightly through 2020 despite major increases in use by China and India. These two countries will account for 92 percent (on a Btu basis) of the expected global increase.

Nuclear power

The reference-case forecast shows nuclear power capacity increasing to 365 gigawatts in 2010 and then falling to 351 gigawatts by 2020. The growth occurs mostly in Asia, but is offset by reactor retirements in industrial nations and the former Eastern Bloc.

Renewable energy

Relatively low prices for conventional fuels help constrain growth in renewable energy's share, which actually falls 1 point to 8 percent of the worldwide total despite a 53 percent gain in consumption. Major hydropower projects in developing Asia account for much of the growth.

Electricity

World consumption of electricity is expected to rise by two-thirds by 2020, to 22 trillion kilowatthours, with certain developing nations showing annual average growth rates over 3.5 percent. Natural gas-fired plants account for 41 percent of the increase in generation, presumably because of their high efficiencies and relatively low environmental impact.

Transportation

The urge to develop transportation infrastructures in nations where they are immature is expected to help drive rapid growth in transportation energy use through 2020. The developing-world growth rate, at 4.8 percent per year, is three times the projected developed-world rate. In the reference-case forecast, per-capita auto ownership rises sharply in developing nations in general and quintuples in China.

International Energy Outlook 2001, DOE/EIA-0484(2001); 284 pages, 90 tables, 108 figures.

Questions about the report's content should be directed to:

Linda Doman, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting

linda.doman@eia.doe.gov

Phone: (202) 586-1041

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File last modified: April 26, 2001