Boosted by annual growth rates of over 3 percent in much of the developing world and by continued strong demand in the industrialized nations, global energy consumption is projected to rise 60 percent over 1997 levels and reach 608 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2020, according to the reference case forecast in the Energy Information Administration's International Energy Outlook 2000. Energy demand growth in Asia and Central and South America is expected to account for more than half of the total increase and 83 percent of the developing world's share.
Crude oil will remain the dominant energy source throughout the forecast period, accounting for 38 percent of world energy consumption in 2020. Reference-case oil demand reaches nearly 113 million barrels per day in 2020, 55 percent above the 1997 level. Growth in transportation-sector use accounts for much of the increase in both the industrialized and developing nations, with per-capita motor vehicle ownership rising sharply in the latter. Petroleum consumption for non-transportation purposes also grows substantially in the developing world.
Economic and environmental benefits help spur major increases in global consumption of natural gas, which is expected to more than double by 2020 to 167 trillion cubic feet. Natural gas's share of total energy use rises from 22 percent in 1997 to 29 percent. Natural gas also accounts for 41 percent of the increase in total primary energy expended on electricity generation worldwide.
Greater electricity generation - projected to rise 76 percent to 22 trillion kilowatthours through the forecast period, a rate of 2.5 percent per year - helps account for the continued prominence of coal in the world's energy budget. China and India account for nearly all of the global increase in coal consumption, although China will continue to allocate much of its coal to industrial primary-energy uses. Electricity from nuclear power rises early in the forecast period, peaking in 2010 at 368 gigawatts as new generating units come on line, especially in Asia. Later, however, accelerating plant retirements in the United States and elsewhere reduce nuclear generation to 303 gigawatts in 2020. Renewable energy is expected to merely retain its 8-percent share of world energy consumption through 2020, due mainly to relatively low fossil-fuel prices.
Rising energy consumption and continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels will lead inevitably to higher carbon emissions. The reference-case forecast projects global carbon emissions to reach 10.0 billion metric tons in 2020, 72 percent above the 1990 benchmark level named in the Kyoto Protocol. By 2020, the world's annual carbon emission burden is split about evenly between the industrialized and the developing nations.
International Energy Outlook 2000, DOE/EIA-0484(2000); 275 pages, 91 tables, 122 figures.
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File last modified: April 25, 2000