Energy prices in the United States are expected to grow moderately or even decline through 2015, leading to record energy consumption levels, according to Energy Information Administration projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook 1997. Low petroleum prices also depress domestic production and drive increases in petroleum net imports (see figure), which are projected to rise from 44 percent of total petroleum consumption in 1995 to 61 percent in 2015. More on these and other key projections:

• Average world crude oil prices are projected to be about $21 a barrel in 2015 (1995 dollars), compared with about $17 a barrel in 1995. The average wellhead price of natural gas increases from $1.61 per thousand cubic feet in 1995 to $2.13 in 2015. However, the average end-use price of natural gas falls from $3.67 per thousand cubic feet in 1995 to $3.52 in 2015, while electricity falls from $20.77 per million Btu to $18.34 and coal falls from $1.35 to $1.13.

• Total energy consumption is projected to rise from 91 quadrillion Btu in 1995 to 111 quadrillion Btu in 2015. Consumption increases in all sectors, but the largest increases are in transportation (33 percent) and the industrial sector (20 percent). Energy intensity (the amount of energy consumed per dollar of gross domestic product) declines 17 percent, but per-capita energy consumption rises slightly.

• With higher energy consumption, energy-related carbon emissions are projected to increase from 1.4 billion metric tons in 1995 to 1.8 billion metric tons in 2015.

The report projects energy-related parameters under several scenarios and includes discussions of current issues in energy, including the restructuring of the electricity industry and the effects of new technologies on natural-gas and renewable-energy markets.

If you have questions about the content of this report, contact Susan Holte, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, Energy Information Administration, at 202-586-4838 or via internet email at sHolte@eia.doe.gov. If you are having technical problems with this site, please contact the EIA Webmaster at wmaster@eia.doe.gov or call 202-586-2753. For general information about energy, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800 or via internet e-mail infoctr@eia.doe.gov.

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