U.S. energy consumption is projected to reach 127 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2020, an increase of nearly one-third over 1999 levels, according to the reference case forecast in the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2001. The forecast projects U.S. economic growth to average 3 percent annually through 2020, substantially higher than last year's estimate, and assumes growing competition in the electricity industry because of changes in the industry's financial structure, improvements in efficiency and operations, and a transition to full competitive pricing of electricity in States with specific deregulation plans.
The average world price of oil is expected to increase from $17.35 per barrel in 1999 to $22.41 per barrel in 2020 (1999 dollars); higher projected world demand (compared to last year's forecast) is offset by higher resource estimates. The average wellhead price of natural gas is also expected to increase over the forecast period, from $2.08 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) to $3.13 per Mcf. However, expected coal prices decline from $16.98 per ton to $12.70 per ton, while the expected price of a kilowatthour of electricity falls from 6.7 cents to 6.0 cents.
The projected increase in energy consumption is supported by increases in all end-use sectors. Demand is projected to rise an average of 1.2 percent per year in the residential sector, 1.4 percent per year in the commercial sector, and 1.0 percent per year in the industrial sector. Transportation energy demand is projected to rise fastest, averaging 1.8 percent per year. This rising demand is met by increases in the consumption of most fuels (see figure). On a Btu basis, natural gas consumption is expected to rise the fastest (2.3 percent annually on average), mainly because of an expected tripling of demand for electricity generation (excluding cogenerators) between 1999 and 2020. Projected electricity demand rises 1.8 percent per year, petroleum demand 1.4 percent per year, coal demand 1.0 percent per year, and renewable fuels demand (driven mainly by State mandates) 1.1 percent per year.
Coal, natural gas, and renewable energy production all are projected to increase. Projected crude oil production continues to fall despite advances in exploration and production technologies. Projected electricity generation increases sharply, while the forecast share of electricity generated using natural gas rises from 16 percent in 1999 to 36 percent in 2020 and that of coal declines from 51 percent to 44 percent. Forecast nuclear generating capacity declines from 97 gigawatts to 72 gigawatts.
Energy intensity (energy use per dollar of gross domestic product) is projected to fall 1.6 percent per year through 2020. However, the increase in energy consumption drives projected energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide from 1,511 million metric tons carbon equivalent in 1999 to 2,041 million metric tons carbon equivalent in 2020.
Annual Energy Outlook 2001, Early Release, is available at this time only on the EIA Website. The full report will be available in print and Web versions in late December.
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File last modified: December 19, 2000
