Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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000 FXUS63 KMQT 312334 AAA AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 735 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)... THE MAIN STORY THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING IN FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND THE FIRST PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEARING THE CWA. THE COLDEST AIR AT 850MB...SHOULD BE OVERHEAD BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z SATURDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE COOLER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS TO PUSH THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY...850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 2C SW TO -6C NE. NNE FLOW WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE BEST TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE BETWEEN O6Z AND 09Z...BEFORE THE FLOW BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS STILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...BUT WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. WENT TOWARDS THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...EXCLUDING WHERE CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN SHORELINE. AS FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS TO TOP OUT AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. AT LEAST...IT SHOULD BE THE LAST TIME WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... NAM SHOWING A 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z SUN WHICH AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN. AFTER THIS PASSES BY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MON. NAM BRINGS ACROSS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE INTO THE CWA ON SUN AND THEN MOVES BOTH OUT LATE SUN NIGHT. NAM SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I290K-I305K SURFACES ON SUN MOVING ACROSS THE U.P. WITH THE LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVING OUT SUN NIGHT STARTING AT FIRST WITH THE MID LEVELS AND GRADUALLY COMING DOWN THE SURFACES. GFS SHOWS ABOUT THE SAME THING WITH Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. WILL TAKE POPS OUT OF THE LATE SUN NIGHT TIMEFRAME EXCEPT IN THE EAST AND REMOVED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL AS MOISTURE HAS MOVED OUT AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK VERY WARM AND PCPN WILL BE ALL RAIN. MONDAY...WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL HAVE A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z TUE. NOT MUCH CHANGES FOR 00Z WED. TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z SAT. WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. MIGHT BE A FEW WARM LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT COULD FALL IN THE EXTENDED. COLD AIR LOOKS TO COME IN THU WITH THE WRAPPED UP SYSTEM AND WENT WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. DID NOT WANT TO GO ALL SNOW FOR NOW IN CASE THE COLD AIR WAS DELAYED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THOUGHT MIX WAS THE WAY TO GO FOR NOW. && .AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)... IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COULD AFFECT SAW THROUGH SAT MORNING AS NE WINDS BRING MOISTURE IN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. ANY LOW CLOUD WOULD DISSIPATE BY SAT AFTN. && .MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)... HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE EVENING...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. IT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SUNDAY. ALSO ON SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM MANITOBA TO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY...BRINGING S WINDS BACK UP TO 30 KNOTS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY MORNING. LATER MONDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE PLAINS. ALONG THIS TROUGH...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PROGRESS TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...GM AVIATION...JLA MARINE...KF
