Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL

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TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008
500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...CORRECTED TEXT...
 
THIS EVENING'S RECONNAISSANCE SFMR DATA INDICATED 40 KT IN THE EAST
QUADRANT AND 51 KT AT 850 MB.  ADDITIONALLY...THE SFMR RECORDED 59
KT ON AN INBOUND LEG OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. 
THIS ANOMALOUS WIND APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DUE TO A LARGE CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...THAT EARLIER DETACHED FROM THE LARGE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SIDE.  SINCE THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS EVENT SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED REPRESENTATIVE OF THE INTENSITY
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 45 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH THE
CYCLONE HOLDING ON TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS...INCLUDING WHEN THE SYSTEM COMPLETES AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/11...SLIGHTLY FASTER.  THE
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ITS SPEED OF ADVANCE
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...WITH
FURTHER INCREASE IN SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO THE HIGHER-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS KEEP CRISTOBAL AS A SEPARATE
ENTITY DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE.  A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WEAK
SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL SURVIVE AND DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...WHICH COULD HAPPEN. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 36.1N  73.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 37.2N  72.1W    45 KT
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 39.7N  69.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 42.5N  65.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 44.4N  61.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     24/0600Z 45.0N  52.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     25/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
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