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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARKANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHERN MISSOURI
NORTHERN PART OF WEST TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 530 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF HARRISON ARKANSAS TO 65 MILES EAST OF PADUCAH KENTUCKY. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 522...WW 523...WW 524...
DISCUSSION...BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS STRONGER WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS SPREAD EWD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AIR MASS IS VERY WARM/MOIST WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS NEAR
70...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 2000 J/KG. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE INTO BOW ECHOES WHICH WOULD RESULT IN AN
ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 525 SEVERE TSTM AR IL KY MO TN 132230Z - 140500Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
15SW HRO/HARRISON AR/ - 65E PAH/PADUCAH KY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /39ESE RZC - 53S PXV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 36909333 37868758 36278758 35319333
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 525 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 525
VALID 140330Z - 140440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW HRO
TO 25 S FLP TO 20 WSW BVX TO 35 SE BVX TO 40 SW DYR TO 25 NNE MKL
TO 55 SSW CKV TO 30 SSW CKV TO 10 NE HOP TO 15 E OWB.
..JEWELL..06/14/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 525
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC023-029-045-067-071-111-115-141-145-147-140440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER
JACKSON JOHNSON POINSETT
POPE VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF
$$
TNC033-097-140440-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT LAUDERDALE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 525
VALID 140235Z - 140340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW HRO TO
15 SSW FLP TO 20 NE BVX TO 5 N JBR TO 35 E JBR TO 25 ENE DYR TO
50 NE MKL TO 35 WSW HOP TO 40 NW HOP TO 35 SSW EVV TO 20 W OWB.
..JEWELL..06/14/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 525
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC023-029-031-045-063-067-071-093-101-111-115-129-137-141-145-
147-140340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLEBURNE CONWAY CRAIGHEAD
FAULKNER INDEPENDENCE JACKSON
JOHNSON MISSISSIPPI NEWTON
POINSETT POPE SEARCY
STONE VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF
$$
KYC033-047-107-149-177-219-221-233-140340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CHRISTIAN HOPKINS
MCLEAN MUHLENBERG TODD
TRIGG WEBSTER
$$
TNC017-033-045-053-079-097-140340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CROCKETT DYER
GIBSON HENRY LAUDERDALE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 525
VALID 140140Z - 140240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW HRO
TO 5 WSW FLP TO 10 SSE FLP TO 30 NNW BVX TO 20 W ARG TO 15 NNE
ARG TO 15 SE POF TO 15 SE PAH TO 40 WSW EVV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1637
..JEWELL..06/14/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 525
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-023-029-031-045-055-063-065-067-071-075-093-101-111-115-
129-135-137-141-145-147-140240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CLEBURNE CONWAY
CRAIGHEAD FAULKNER GREENE
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LAWRENCE MISSISSIPPI
NEWTON POINSETT POPE
SEARCY SHARP STONE
VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
ILC069-140240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDIN
$$
KYC033-035-039-047-055-075-083-105-107-139-143-149-157-177-219-
221-233-140240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CALLOWAY CARLISLE
CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN FULTON
GRAVES HICKMAN HOPKINS
LIVINGSTON LYON MCLEAN
MARSHALL MUHLENBERG TODD
TRIGG WEBSTER
$$
MOC069-133-143-155-140240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
PEMISCOT
$$
TNC017-033-045-053-079-095-097-131-183-140240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CROCKETT DYER
GIBSON HENRY LAKE
LAUDERDALE OBION WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 525
VALID 140040Z - 140140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW HRO TO
20 SSW UNO TO 25 ESE UNO TO 40 SW FAM.
..BOTHWELL..06/14/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 525
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-021-023-029-031-045-049-055-063-065-067-071-075-089-
093-101-111-115-121-129-135-137-141-145-147-140140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CLAY
CLEBURNE CONWAY CRAIGHEAD
FAULKNER FULTON GREENE
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LAWRENCE MARION
MISSISSIPPI NEWTON POINSETT
POPE RANDOLPH SEARCY
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
ILC003-069-087-127-151-153-181-140140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER HARDIN JOHNSON
MASSAC POPE PULASKI
UNION
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-075-083-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-
177-219-221-233-140140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN
FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN
HOPKINS LIVINGSTON LYON
MCCRACKEN MCLEAN MARSHALL
MUHLENBERG TODD TRIGG
WEBSTER
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-069-133-143-155-181-201-207-223-140140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PEMISCOT RIPLEY
SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE
$$
TNC017-033-045-053-079-095-097-131-183-140140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CROCKETT DYER
GIBSON HENRY LAKE
LAUDERDALE OBION WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.