000
FXUS62 KTAE 021005 AAA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
500 AM EDT SUN NOV 02 2008

...UPDATED TO INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOKING AT THE 07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA SHOWS A RATHER MESSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. FROM WEST TO EAST
WE FIND AN AMPLIFIED SYSTEM/TROUGH JUST BEGINNING TO COME ASHORE
FROM CALIFORNIA TO BRITISH COLUMBIA. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IS RIDING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND FLOWING UP AND
OVER A SHARP RIDGE ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. PRECEDING THIS
RIDGE WE FIND A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN/U.S BORDER APPROACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE FLOW THEN
DIPS INTO A BROADER TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA AND NEW
ENGLAND. CLOSER TO HOME WE FIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DROPPED
SOUTH INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY HAS CLOSED
OFF TO OUR WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD
EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...1028MB RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO RESIDE JUST TO OUR
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE IS PROVIDING NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW TO THE AREA. THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC IS BRINGING MORE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S...WHILE AREAS FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTH
AND WEST ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

TODAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW REACHES IT DEEPEST POINT AROUND 573DM EARLY
THIS MORNING CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. GFS/ECMWF
BOTH SHOWING THIS LOW EDGING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WHILE BEGINNING TO FILL A BIT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
IS BECOMING BRIEF AT BEST AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC LIFT ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH HEALTHY MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE EXITS THESE ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH SUPPLYING A CONTINUOUS FEED OF DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR...FEELING INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT THAT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL JUST NOT BE ABLE TO MATERIALIZE WEST OF A LINE
FROM AROUND ALBANY TO BAINBRIDGE TO PANAMA CITY. WILL KEEP SPRINKLES
IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS MIGHT BE OVERDONE. BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE DAY EAST AND SOUTH OF A LINE LINE FROM ROUGHLY VALDOSTA TO
TALLAHASSEE AND PANAMA CITY. THESE ZONES WILL SEE MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS WITH BETTER LOW LEVELS MOISTURE AND MORE
ALIGNMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE LIFT. ALSO WILL BE SEEING SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO THE OVERALL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN FL BIG
BEND AND EASTERN MARINE ZONES. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST BY
ALMOST ALL THE GUIDANCE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND MAY ACTUALLY RESULT IN DECENT
RAINFALL COVERAGE OVER THE WATER BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
GFS/ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND ZERO FOR LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND
EXTENDING UP TO AROUND THE COASTLINE OF THE FL BIG BEND. THESE
NUMBERS SUGGEST A BETTER INSTABILITY PROFILE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
REACHING THE GA/SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS
EVOLUTION WILL ALSO EXIT THE BEST SYNOPTIC AND ISENTROPIC LIFT EAST
OF OUR ZONES FAIRLY EARLY. STRONG 1035-1040MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL ACT TO
RE-ENFORCE THE RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A
SHARPENING OF AN INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE NE FL COAST.
WHILE SOME AMPLIFICATION IS LIKELY...THE GFS IS LIKELY ON THE
EXTREME SIDE. HOWEVER...EVEN A MORE MODEST SHARPENING WILL ACT TO
TURN OUR WINDS MORE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
THIS MORE NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE EAST...AND WITH THE LOSS OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT WILL NEED TO TAPER POPS BACK DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL FEATURE CONTINUES TO FILL
BECOMING MORE OF A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW LEVEL
PATTERN IS NOT CHANGING MUCH THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A GENERAL
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE SE COAST AND
THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS FLOW WILL BE BRINGING PLENTY OF DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST. SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOUGHER FORECAST MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY/I-75 CORRIDOR AS
THE MOISTURE GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER TIGHT IN THIS VICINITY.
HOWEVER...THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST. WILL LEAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP UP FOR OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND AVAILABLE ATLANTIC MOISTURE. LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE AMPLIFIED SURFACE TROUGH
CLOSING OFF INTO A HEALTHY LOW SE OF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. AS THIS
LOW PULLS FURTHER NORTH IT WOULD ACT TO CUT OFF ANY LINGERING INFLUX
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES AND WILL LEAVE THE
INHERITED SILENT/DRY POP GRID ALONE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT`S THINKING ABOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK CONTINENTAL SFC HIGH
TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF FAIR...WARM...AND DRY DAYS ON
WED AND THU. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO EVEN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WARMER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. THIS RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT. CONFIDENCE OF THIS TIMING IS
INCREASING AS WELL...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH COMING INTO VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THEIR LATEST RUNS. POPS MAY BE A BIT CHALLENGING
OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AS RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
AND SHORT LIVED...BUT WILL LIKELY BE JUST SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A
PERIOD OF SCT SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...SO WILL PLAN ON 30
PERCENT POPS AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT SOME
DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND THE GFS BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS ARE
PICKING UP ON THIS FASTER THAN THE MEX GUIDANCE WHICH IS WEIGHTED
TOO HEAVILY TOWARDS CLIMO THIS FAR OUT...SO WILL STICK NEAR THE
CURRENT GRIDS WHICH HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S
FROM NW TO SE. AT NIGHT...EXPECT LOWS TO DROP BELOW CLIMO LEVELS ON
SAT AND SUN MORNINGS...BUT NO FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...AS THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD
AS THE RECORD BREAKING AIRMASS FROM LAST WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE MARINE ZONE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTHWEST AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL KEEP NORTHEASTERLY FLOW GOING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON ONLY TO COME BACK UP TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS AGAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISHING ON MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH MOVES SOUTH
AND EAST OVER THE FORECAST WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE HOLDING AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A LARGER BAND OF AC MOVING IN FROM THE EAST OVER MUCH
OF SW AND SC GA AND PARTS OF THE FL BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE. THUS
FAR...THIS AC DECK IS A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
(BETWEEN 9 AND 11 KFT)...AND ALSO SEE NO EVIDENCE OF ANY LOWER SC OR
CU MIXED IN AT THIS TIME...EVEN ALONG THE NE FL AND SE GA COASTLINES
WHERE IT SET UP WELL LAST NIGHT. THEREFORE...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ALL
OF THE TAF SITES WILL SPEND MORE TIME AT VFR OVERNIGHT THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED...BUT ONCE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT KICKS IN FROM THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL LOW...LOWER CIGS COULD DEVELOP IN A HURRY OVER THE
EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS...JUST NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR
BEFORE SUNRISE. DURING THE DAYTIME...AS THE UPPER LOW GATHERS MORE
MOISTURE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT AT THIS TIME...EXPECT ANY
TSTMS TO BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE SE FL BIG BEND...
SO WILL LEAVE THESE OUT OF OUR CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION
TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE
WESTERN BIG BEND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE
DRIER AIR RETURNS TO MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE TRI STATE AREA
ON FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...AND IT MAY TAKE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE
RED FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS RETURN TO THREATEN THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  73  53  76  52  76 /  30  20  10  10  10
PANAMA CITY  73  57  75  57  75 /  20  10  10   0  10
DOTHAN       73  51  74  50  74 /  10  10   0  10  10
ALBANY       74  51  74  51  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
VALDOSTA     73  55  73  53  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
CROSS CITY   74  56  76  54  76 /  50  20  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA
AVIATION/LONG TERM/FIRE WX...GOULD