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000 FXUS62 KTAE 021441 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 941 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2008 .UPDATE...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW THIS MORNING TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS. 12Z SOUNDING REFLECTS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...WITH H5 TEMPS OF -17C. THIS MAY COOL ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED TO BELOW 700MB WITH PWAT LESS THAN ONE INCH. MODIFIED SOUNDING DOES SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE CAPE THIS AFTERNOON...LESS THAN 500J/KG. BEST DYNAMICS/MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND DO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT IN POPS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH DRIER AIR AND THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IN PLACE. CURRENT POP GRIDS LOOK VERY REASONABLE SO DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY CHANGES ATTM. SAME GOES FOR REMAINDER OF GRIDS. ONLY CHANGE FOR ZONES WILL BE TO REMOVE MENTION OF SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ZONES. WITH UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THESE AREAS...DO NOT SEE MUCH FORCING REMAINING IN PLACE. && .AVIATION...AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH GATHERS MORE MOISTURE, ISOLD-SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ERN PARTS OF THE AREA. ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ISOLD AND CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE SERN BIG BEND. OTHERWISE, EXPECT INCREASING LOW/MID CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY, WITH CIGS VFR (ABOVE FL035) THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NELY AROUND 5 KTS. && .MARINE...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS RANGE FROM AROUND 5 KNOTS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WELL OFFSHORE. OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MARINE FCST AND REMOVE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 73 53 76 52 76 / 30 20 10 10 10 PANAMA CITY 73 57 75 57 75 / 20 10 10 0 10 DOTHAN 73 51 74 50 74 / 10 10 0 10 10 ALBANY 74 51 74 51 74 / 10 10 10 10 10 VALDOSTA 73 55 73 53 73 / 40 20 10 10 10 CROSS CITY 74 56 76 54 76 / 50 20 10 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ CAMP/JAMSKI