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000 FXUS62 KTAE 290047 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 830 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008 ...COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON EXPECTED OVERNIGHT... ...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD LEVELS WITH A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA... .SYNOPSIS... AT 8 PM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S COAST. 24 HR TEMP COMPARISON INDICATES THAT THEY ARE RUNNING 4 TO 6 DEGREES COLDER WEST OF...AND 6 TO 12 DEGREES COLDER EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. WINDS WERE GENERALLY NORTH AROUND 5 MPH. AT UPPER LEVELS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY RIDGE OVER WRN CONUS WITH 593 HIGH PARKED OVER NRN AZ...AND MASSIVE TROUGH FROM ERN CANADA SOUTH THRU N ENGLAND DOWN THRU FL. 530 LOW LOCATED OVER NJ ...WITH SINKING DRY AIR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION PROMOTING GUSTY NW WINDS OVER THE CWA. TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NE WED THRU THURS. AT LOWER LEVELS... REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. AHEAD OF HIGH CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS SPREADING E/SE. DEW POINTS REMAIN VERY LOW...GENERALLY LOW 30S. THIS REFLECTED IN 00Z RAOBS. I.E. TAE WITH ONLY 0.35 IN PWAT. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING AND GUSTS DYING OFF. && .SHORT TERM...(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY) MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ESE ALONG THE GULF COAST BE OVER ERN LOUISIANA BY DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE ...ABOVE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO QUEBEC AND THEN OPEN UP INTO WAVE OVER MARITIMES THRU WED MORNING SLOWING DOWN SE JAUNT OF SURFACE HIGH. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE SURFACE WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND GO NEARLY CALM INTO WED MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. AND...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COLDER THAN THE AIR ABOVE IT... PATCHY FROST LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS AWAY FROM CITIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLD CORRIDOR FROM CRESTVIEW...TO THE TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL AIRPORT...TO THE CROSS CITY AIRPORT. THE ONLY THING THAT WOULD PREVENT A FREEZE IS IF THE WINDS STAY UP MORE THAN EXPECTED...BUT THIS IS UNLIKELY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH RECORD VALUES. WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST AND HOIST FROST ADVISORY FOR COASTAL SECTIONS. HERE ARE SOME CLIMATOLOGICAL STATISTICS REGARDING FREEZES AND RECORD LOW TEMPS... WEDNESDAY MORNING (OCTOBER 29TH) TALLAHASSEE...................31 SET IN 1987 APALACHICOLA..................41 SET IN 1976 PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....36 SET IN 2001 HEADLAND AL...................32 SET IN 1952 ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......30 SET IN 1987 ALL TIME RECORD LOWS FOR OCTOBER TALLAHASSEE...................30 SET IN 1973...1989 AND 1993 APALACHICOLA..................33 SET IN 1993 PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....33 SET IN 1989 HEADLAND AL...................26 SET IN 2001 ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......28 SET IN 1989 AVERAGE FALL FIRST FREEZE PERIOD OF RECORD TALLAHASSEE (AIRPORT).........NOVEMBER 19TH 1948 TO PRESENT TALLAHASSEE (DOWNTOWN)........DECEMBER 6TH 1885 TO 1961 APALACHICOLA..................DECEMBER 14TH 1975 TO PRESENT PANAMA CITY 5N................DECEMBER 10TH 1972 TO PRESENT HEADLAND AL...................NOVEMBER 13TH 1950 TO PRESENT ALBANY 3SE....................NOVEMBER 19TH 1902 TO PRESENT && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH DISPERSIONS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE WINDS AND THE KBDI VALUES. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON. GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS... CALHOUN... CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY... EARLY... GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL... QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER... WORTH. FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES... INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON... LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST. FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WALTON...BAY...GULF...WAKULLA...TAYLOR AND DIXIE. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM EDT /11 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN... DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY... MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON. FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF... HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE... LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ AVIATION...BARRY PUBLIC/MARINE...BLOCK